How Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Struggles With Vladimir Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an upcoming US-Russia leadership meeting have been overstated, apparently.
Only a few days after President Trump said he intended to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A initial get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, too.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed
The frequently changing meeting is just the latest development in the president's attempts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in the North African country recently to celebrate that truce deal, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he said.
However, the conditions that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost four years.
Less Leverage
Per the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a deal was Israel's move to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided the president bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump gained from a history of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the legality of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The American leader, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.
Add in Trump's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, Trump has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the global economy and intensify the conflict.
Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and suspending weapon deliveries to the country - then to retreat in the face of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.
The president loves to tout his skill to sit down and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the war any nearer a peaceful end.
The Russian president may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.
In July, Putin agreed to a summit in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that the president would sign off on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently delayed.
Last week, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader called the US president who then promoted the potential summit in Hungary.
The following day, the president welcomed Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.
The US leader maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
But the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for our nation – Russia quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.
So, in a short period, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a Budapest summit with Putin and privately pressuring Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – even land Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has finally decided on calling for a truce along current battle lines – something the Russian government has rejected.
During his election campaign previously, Trump vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that pledge, saying that concluding the hostilities is proving harder than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when both parties wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.