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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although experts believe PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a multi-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June amid a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a campaign dominated by topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with some experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant division means that no one party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of power. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated soon after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.